Andrew Whitaker: If the SNP does retain power after May's elections, prepare for some 'groundhog day' politics

ALEX Salmond's SNP meets for its pre-election conference in Glasgow in a stronger position than many commentators would have perhaps expected a few weeks ago. With the party holding its own in recent opinion polls, and one even suggesting an SNP lead, a second term for Mr Salmond as First Minister certainly can't be ruled out.

However, a big question is what would a re-elected SNP administration would look like and how would the party deliver key promises such as funding for extra police and free higher education ?

Assuming the SNP was still a minority government, there's also the issue of what would stop the party's flagship policies, such as an independence referendum and abolition of the council tax, being blocked by opposition parties ?

Also, would Mr Salmond ring any changes to his Cabinet team and introduce new blood to his front-bench ?

It's unlikely health secretary Nicola Sturgeon would be moved from her brief, having performed strongly throughout the SNP's term in office and delivering on key issues such as free prescriptions, while John Swinney, who is viewed as a safe pair of hands, would be likely to stay as finance secretary.

However, there would have to be a question mark over the position of justice secretary Kenny MacAskill, who could be quietly dropped following his controversial decision to release the Lockerbie bomber.

Perhaps his role could be filled by current education secretary Michael Russell, with the education brief being taken over by an able, middle- ranking government member such as transport minister Keith Brown.

It's hard to see what other changes Mr Salmond could ring, but a more pressing question is how the SNP would continue to fund its policies such as a council tax freeze at a time when key council services are starved of funding.

Getting the independence referendum through parliament would also be a battle for Mr Salmond, with the unionist parties almost certain to gang up to stop the bill's progress.

True, Mr Salmond would claim that his renewed mandate gave an independence vote an overwhelming legitimacy. But would that be enough to stop the SNP's opponents inflicting a defeat on his administration?

Mr Salmond's drive for a referendum could, for that reason, mean a groundhog day for an SNP administration when it came to allowing Scots a vote on independence.

Of course, a second term for Mr Salmond would see the SNP leader's combative approach continue when it came to confronting the cuts-driven agenda of the Tory-Lib Dem government at Westminster.

So, it would, in many ways, be a case of business as usual if the SNP were to win in May. Certainly, the party would not look hugely different during a second term in power, for which Mr Salmond and his supporters at this weekend's SNP conference so desperately yearn.