Lin Noueihed: Bahrainis fear single bullet of sectarian strife

In a country where speaking about sectarian divisions was once taboo, bloggers and politicians are openly warning that political differences are in danger of escalating into civil strife.

"As the Great War began with a single bullet, Bahrain is also exposed to a slide into real chaos because of one stupid and meaningless incident," Bahraini blogger Mahmood al-Youssif wrote.

Bahrain has been gripped by the worst unrest since the 1990s after a youth movement took to the streets last month, emboldened by revolts that toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt.

Unlike those overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim countries, however, Bahrain is home to a majority Shi'ite population ruled by the US-backed al-Khalifa family, who are Sunnis.

The protesters, mostly Shi'ites who have long complained of discrimination in jobs and services, are urging democratic reforms. Despite the best efforts of protesters, who insist in their chants and placards on unity between Sunnis and Shi'ites, the unrest has sectarian overtones.

Fears are growing that a protracted political stand-off in Bahrain could turn out less like Tunisia and more like Lebanon or Iraq, countries where politics has descended into religious bloodletting.

"I am very afraid, afraid of these divisions even inside our own sect and afraid that we end up like Iraq or like Lebanon," said Khadija Hassan, a Shi'ite in a black chador, who joined a protest against the naturalisation of foreigners this week. "The government wants to cause friction between Sunnis and Shi'ites when we have no problem. We marry each other."

At the protest camp on Pearl roundabout, Sheikh Ali Salman, head of the largest Shi'ite opposition party Wefaq, said a planned march on the royal palace today could push Bahrain into sectarian chaos.

Wefaq is calling for a new government and a constitutional monarchy that vests the judicial, executive and legislative authority with the people.It is organising a less provocative march calling for constitutional reform.

The coalition of much smaller Shi'ite parties which have organised the march on the royal court demands the overthrow of the monarchy and the establishment of a republic.

These ideas terrify Sunnis, who fear they would play into the hands of the oil-producing Gulf's main Shi'ite power and only republic, non-Arab Iran.

The march on the royal court will pass Sunni areas and the youth movement which started the protests said it would not take part.

It called on Wefaq to convince hardline parties to cancel the march for fear that it would "cause strife and the fall of innocent victims in the people's ranks".

"Democracy in Bahrain is shaped by the sectarian divide. In a real democracy, Bahrain would be ruled by Shi'ites as democracy is fundamentally majoritarian," said Shadi Hamid, analyst at the Brookings Centre in Doha.

"How do you get round that sectarian issue and how do you persuade Sunnis to accept a Shi'ite prime minister? ... We are looking at a protracted stalemate that will mean greater sectarian splits in Bahrain."

The unrest in Bahrain is being watched in US ally Saudi Arabia, where Shi'ites make up 15 per cent of the population.

Saudi protests have mostly taken place in the Eastern Province, where the oil industry is based and which is home to most of the Shi'ites in the puritanical Sunni kingdom.

As Saudi Arabia prepares for its own Day of Rage today, the risks of contagion are lost on no-one.

"The US government is not putting serious pressure on the government to reform. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council are telling al-Khalifa to hold on because this is a slippery slope," said Hamid. "Bahrain is unlike Tunisia or Egypt; it is strategically vital and involves Iran. The US is concerned about growing Iranian influence after losing a close ally like Egypt."