General election 2024: Will Rishi Sunak call a summer election?

Earlier in the year we endured Labour MPs insisting it would be May, in a desperate bid to bounce Downing Street into it, thereby getting themselves into government as soon as possible. Despite several journalists who should know better getting carried away, this was never a real consideration.

Things are less clear on a summer election, with the latest rumour being a vote to take place in July. The arguments for this stem from the passing of the Rwanda Bill, which despite extensive parliamentary ping-pong, should receive royal assent this week, allowing flights to take off in June.

This means the Prime Minister could go into an election saying his plan to stop illegal crossings is working and point to flights taking off to Rwanda, barring any legal challenges.

There are also concerns about party unity, with Rishi Sunak likely to face an internal backlash in May following the local elections, where the Tories are expected to suffer heavy losses, including to the two Tory metro mayors. Going early would rally the troops, and ensure any angry rumblings would wait until after the vote.

Asked about a July election on Tuesday, Mr Sunak declined to rule it out, instead insisting yet again the poll date would be in the second half of the year.

However, Tory MPs still don’t favour an early election, not just because of the disastrous polling, but due to the banana skins summer brings with it. The warmer weather will mean more illegal crossings, something that won’t just stop because of the Rwanda Bill.

The parliamentary party is also keen to wait until the autumn because of the prospect of improving interest rates, as well as giving space from the May elections.

Waiting allows for not just the economic picture to improve, but also prevents Mr Sunak telling the country it’s time to vote so close to what is likely to be a gutting night for the party. Even in the face of electoral oblivion, optics are everything.