Friend and foe watch Turkey’s moves warily

Turkey’s mix of economic growth and secular democracy under a government rooted in political Islam has fascinated Arab countries eager for a new model, but even those in the throes of popular uprisings may feel qualms if Ankara starts throwing its military weight around.

Stung by Israel’s refusal to apologise over last year’s killing of nine Turks during an Israeli commando raid on an aid ship bound for Gaza, Mr Erdogan this week said Turkish warships would be seen in waters where Israel’s navy operates, raising the risk of a clash between the once close allies.

Turkey is Nato’s second biggest military power and its navy is considered to be far superior to that of Israel, although the Jewish state is widely assumed to have submarines that carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

Bolstered by a booming economy and unprecedented political stability at home, Turkey has seen its “soft power” rise in the region under Mr Erdogan’s AK Party.

Conservative on social and religious issues and liberal on economic ones, the AK government has cemented business ties in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa and pursued a foreign policy of “zero problems with neighbours” – a policy buffeted by the dispute with Israel and tensions with Syria.

But threats to deploy warships show that Turkey, a prickly Nato member and European Union candidate, is now tempted to use its military power to pursue its own interests in a changing region.

“Erdogan is taking a very aggressive stance to assert Turkey’s status as a regional power instead of using the soft power we have seen until recently,” said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based security analyst.

“There is a sense in the AK Party that Turkey is a major regional power and that the Mediterranean is its sphere of influence. But Nato and the West increasingly see Turkey as a loose cannon,” he said.

“Turkey played its cards well in the past when it had good relations with everyone, but now it is playing them very badly.”

Mr Jenkins said non-Arab Turkey behaving like a neighbourhood bully would be regarded with grave concern by Arabs, who were subjects of the Ottoman Empire for centuries.

“The Arabs distinguish between a Turkey that stands up to Israel and engages with them and a Turkey that wants to dominate the entire region,” he said.

Omer Taspinar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said Turkey might be using Israel as a convenient punching bag following a series of diplomatic setbacks and domestic failures, including the Kurdish problem.

“Israel has given Erdogan the chance to demonstrate he is a strong leader in a strong country,” Mr Taspinar said.

Turkey’s ties with Syria, a former friend, are near breaking point. President Bashar al-Assad has defied Turkish calls on him to end a bloody crackdown on protesters. Shiite Muslim Iran, another ally of Turkey, has reacted frostily to Ankara’s recent decision to host a Nato early-warning radar system.

Meanwhile, Turkey is moving to adapt to the new landscape. Next week, Mr Erdogan will visit Egypt, Tunisia and Libya – where revolts have deposed autocratic governments – in a trip designed to cement Ankara’s business and political ties there.

A larger presence of Turkish vessels in the eastern Mediterranean would be unsettling for Greece and the divided island of Cyprus as it eyes oil drilling exploration.

Turkey says oil deals granted by the Greek Cypriot government, which represents the island in the EU, are illegal as the borders of Cyprus remain undetermined while Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots pursue reunification talks.

Turkey and Greece, also a Nato member, have a history of territorial disputes, and their navies were involved in a standoff in 1996 over an uninhabited islet in the Aegean Sea.