Sanctions some are betting against

Oil companies in Europe are betting on the survival of president Bashar al-Assad in Syria, in contrast to their support for Libya’s opposition six months ago.

Several tankers are sailing to Syria this week to either deliver fuel or pick up crude.

The same companies, including Swiss-based trader Vitol, made the opposite bet when it came to trade in Libya. They agreed to supply opponents of Col Gaddafi with fuel in the hope their support would be rewarded at the end of the conflict.

“What oil firms are currently doing does really look like they believe Assad will win, and they will have to deal with him again,” said a western diplomatic source.

“The big difference that they all see with Libya is that in Syria you don’t even have a location where the opposition can get together like Benghazi,” he added.

Satellite tracking this week showed Royal Dutch Shell had booked the Neverland Star tanker to berth at Banias to load Syrian crude this weekend, although Shell would not comment if loading was still planned. It operates a joint venture with Syria’s state oil company and a Chinese-Indian firm to produce Syrian Light.

Industry sources say even if oil exports from Syria are banned by the EU, Shell and other oil firms would continue operating there unless the EU imposes sanctions on co-operation itself.