The endgame - has Iraq's insurgency run out of steam?

The US military has experienced its least deadly month for more than a year. Operations along with the newly formed Iraqi police have snared a number of leading terrorists with links to al-Qaeda and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The casualty data for March shows that 39 American and coalition troops were killed during the month - the lowest toll since February 2004.

US deaths have now dropped for three months in a row, from 106 in January to 56 in February and 35 in March. Attacks on US troops are also down from over 100 before the January 30 election to around 60 today. Among the March figures were one British death and three from other coalition countries.

Pentagon spokesman Larry Di Rita says: "The intelligence is getting better. We have apprehended or killed an enormous number of insurgents, so we may well be seeing people who are less skilled at what they’re doing. Their ability to anticipate and target is becoming cruder because the coalition’s intelligence is getting better."

But there is much to be cautious about. CNN, which publishes detailed analyses of casualties in Iraq on its website, including the identities of all those killed, says: "The fatality trend line is at 8.3 this week - the lowest level for a year. However, both fatalities and the number of wounded, while reaching low levels, have increased in each of the past three weeks. The recent increases may be indications of the start of a new second anniversary insurgency."

Grim confirmation that the insurgency can still inflict lethal blows came with the deaths of four more US soldiers in separate incidents at the end of last week. Yet the downward trend in attacks since the January 30 elections may be a sign that the tide has turned.

The Pentagon’s view is that the insurgency is losing momentum in the wake of Iraq’s experiment with democracy. It also believes that US counter-insurgency operations are having an effect, with US commanders reporting that troops are finding more bombs before they go off and that the bombs are less sophisticated.

Last week, Iraq’s interim interior minister, Falah al-Naqib, claimed that the progress was due to the growing number of Iraqi security forces, and that not only were the attacks decreasing but also claiming fewer victims. He said it was easier for them to gather intelligence on insurgents than it was for US troops.

American defence officials now put the number of trained Iraqi security forces at 142,472. The total includes only those who have both the training and equipment to fight. These forces consist of 81,889 trained and equipped police, highway patrol and other forces in the Ministry of Interior Forces, and 60,583 troops in the Ministry of Defence Forces.

The suicide bombing of army barracks, police stations and recruiting queues resulting in many deaths is the biggest obstacle to building up local forces.